If your going disposable, do at least 3 of each size to get you through the first year. My youngest son is 15 months tomorrow and he is in size 3 of disposable diapers, he's short and fat, he weighs almost 25 pounds and will be 15 months tomorrow, he is a good eater for mommy, lol considering I have a picky eater and a nibbler too...lol..
Either newborn or 1. My oldest was tiny so he was in newborns for almost a month and a half. My youngest was average and only fit into them for 2 weeks lol. So I would go with ones. Better to get them a little too big than too small.